Another Informative Breakfast with HSBC

There’s no better way to start off a morning than to enjoy an informative session paired with a hearty breakfast at the HSBC – WAGBA Economic Outlook Breakfast, held on the 27th of February at Hyatt Regency in Perth. The event was attended by more than 50 guests, with both new and familiar faces such as: the Hon Sabine Winton MLA, Western Australia Government Minister, the Hon Tjorn Sibma MLC, Deputy Leader of the Liberal Party in the Legislative Council as well as Torsten Ketelsen OAM, former Honorary Consul of the Federal Republic of Germany.

WAGBA President Stephan Kirsch gave a warm opening with a welcoming speech. A special welcome was expressed to key representatives of WAGBA’s long-time gold member The Perth Mint, i.e. its Chairman, Sam Walsh AO and its CEO Paul Graham. The keynote speaker of the day, Paul Bloxham, was introduced. He – also a very familiar face – is HSBC’s Chief Economist for Australia, New Zealand and for Global Commodities.

Paul shared an overview of the global economy as we navigate turbulent times due to geopolitical tensions and major trade policies as influenced by State elections in key nations. The dynamics of the world economy have been shaped by a complex interplay of events. Paul specifically listed the upcoming elections in the United States, as well as Russia, Indonesia and India, as some of the examples of the global political landscape being in flux, further exacerbated by conflicts in regions such as Ukraine and tensions in the Middle East.

Balance is the key here, Paul emphasized, as economies are striving to strike a delicate balance – aiming to lower inflationary pressures while avoiding the spectre of recession. However, the pursuit of lower inflation often necessitates higher unemployment rates, a phenomenon that historically correlates with economic downturns. Amongst some of the major state actors, Paul specifically lists the United States, whose economy is faring well, buoyed by its resilient financial markets. China’s economy, while grappling with deflationary pressures and challenges within its property industry, remains fundamentally strong. Europe, whose economy has stalled recently, with Germany slipping towards a recession amidst broader economic headwinds. And naturally, Australia, where our economic picture remains relatively stable and our interest rate hikes have been conservative compared to our Western counterparts, with rate cuts unlikely until early to mid-2025. However, concerns linger over the nation’s lagging productivity levels and the need for increased competitiveness. In Western Australia, the economic outlook appears brighter compared to other states and territories, with the region expected to outperform our counterparts.

Paul also emphasized the interconnectedness of global markets as commodity prices continue to be influenced by regional tensions, particularly those arising between the US and China. The push for electrification and CO2 reduction measures is also reshaping industries and driving innovation in the energy and transportation sectors.

Following the keynote presentation attendees of the WAGBA – HSCB event had the chance to deep dive in a Q & A session.

WAGBA would like to extend its gratitude to HSBC for supporting such an insightful event, and to Paul Bloxham for his highly informative keynote presentation. Thank you to all attending WAGBA members, business representatives and guests for their contributions. We look forward to the next upcoming event with HSBC!

Biography of Paul Bloxham:

Paul Bloxham is the chief spokesperson for HSBC on forecasts and trends for the Australian and NZ economies and their interaction with global financial markets and international economies.
Prior to joining HSBC in 2010, Paul Bloxham spent 12 years as an economist within the Reserve Bank of Australia's Economic Analysis Department where he headed up the overseas economies and financial conditions sections, as well as working on domestic forecasting and prices.

Paul is a regular commentator on local and international business television and a frequent contributor of opinion editorials to the Australian newspapers. Paul is also a member of the Australian National University's Shadow Reserve Bank Board and is an Adjunct Professor at Curtin University. He holds a Master's degree in public financial policy from the London School of Economics