Another Engaging Breakfast with Paul Bloxham, Chief Economist of HSBC Australia
WAGBA is delighted to have hosted the annual WAGBA-HSBC Economic Outlook Breakfast on 6th May, held at the Duxton Hotel for the very first time. The event was attended by some 70 guests, including familiar faces such as the Hon. Alannah MacTiernan MLC, and former Honorary Consuls of the Federal Republic of Germany the Hon. Bill Hassell AM and Torsten Ketelsen OAM.
WAGBA President Stephan Kirsch gave a warm opening with a welcoming speech, with introduction of the keynote speaker of the day, returning guest Paul Bloxham. As HSBC’s Chief Economist for Australia, New Zealand and for Global Commodities, Paul is an award-winning economist who has consistently been recognised as one of the most accurate economic forecasters by Financial Times and has won numerous awards throughout his career— just recently he was ranked #1 Overall, #1 Inflation, #1 Fiscal Balance by Focus Economics for 2025! Paul is also a familiar figure to those who are involved with WAGBA and, needless to say, well known to those in the finance sector as well.
Paul Bloxham's speech included a comprehensive analysis of the current economic landscape, focusing on the impacts of volatile U.S. trade policies – particularly tariffs – under the Trump administration, and their ripple effects on global markets. He highlighted how the administration's tariffs on imports, especially from China, have disrupted supply chains, raised consumer prices, and failed to achieve their stated goals, such as reducing trade deficits or reviving domestic manufacturing. As a result, these policies have instead created uncertainty, slowed global trade, and contributed to inflationary pressures. “This is not a new occurrence”, Paul pointed out, as he noted similar measures in the past did not yield the desired outcomes and often led to unintended negative consequences, such as higher costs for downstream industries.
Paul revisited a key theme from last year’s speech—China’s pivot from property-driven growth toward manufacturing and green energy investments—highlighting how this ongoing shift continues to reshape global trade dynamics and presents new challenges for commodity demand and international markets. He discussed Australia's position in this evolving landscape, noting that while the country may not be the hardest hit, it faces significant structural challenges, particularly in productivity growth. Urgent reforms were also called in his keynote speech, in competition policy, taxation, and regulation to spur investment and innovation, as he warned that without such changes, Australia's living standards may stagnate.
Paul concluded by touching on potential growth opportunities, such as the energy transition and education exports, while underscoring the need for a more competitive and efficient economic framework to navigate an increasingly uncertain global environment.
Following the keynote presentation, attendees of the WAGBA-HSBC event had the chance to deep dive in an engaging Q & A session.
WAGBA would like to extend its gratitude to HSBC once again for supporting such an insightful event, and to Paul Bloxham for his highly informative keynote presentation. Thank you to all attending WAGBA members, business representatives and guests for their contributions. We look forward to the next upcoming event with HSBC!
Biography of Paul Bloxham:
Paul Bloxham, Chief economist Australia & New Zealand at HSBC was ranked by The Australian Financial Review as the most accurate forecaster of 2024, based on his predictions for the cash rate, unemployment, and inflation last year.
Paul’s primary focus is on forecasts and trends for the Australian and NZ economies and their interaction with global financial markets and international economies.
Prior to joining HSBC in 2010, Paul Bloxham spent 12 years as an economist within the Reserve Bank of Australia's Economic Analysis Department where he headed up the overseas economies and financial conditions sections, as well as working on domestic forecasting and prices. As a regular commentator on local and international business television and a frequent contributor of opinion editorials to the Australian newspapers, Paul is also a member of the Australian National University's Shadow Reserve Bank Board and an Adjunct Professor at Curtin University, and holds a Master's degree in Public Financial Policy from the London School of Economics.
