Another Engaging Breakfast with Paul Bloxham, Chief Economist of HSBC Australia, New Zealand, and Global Commodities
WAGBA is delighted to have hosted the annual WAGBA-HSBC Economic Outlook Breakfast 2026 on 3rd March, once again held at the timeless Duxton Hotel. As one of WAGBA members’ most looked forward to event every year, the breakfast was attended by some 60 guests, including familiar faces such as the Hon. Alannah MacTiernan JP, and former Honorary Consuls of the Federal Republic of Germany, the Hon. Bill Hassell AM and Torsten Ketelsen OAM.
WAGBA President Michael Warneke gave a warm opening with a welcoming speech, with introduction of the keynote speaker of the day — returning guest Paul Bloxham. As HSBC’s Chief Economist for Australia, New Zealand and for Global Commodities, Paul is an award-winning economist who has consistently been recognised as one of the most accurate economic forecasters by Financial Times and has been awarded many other accolades throughout his career. Paul is also a familiar figure to those who have been with WAGBA for some time and, needless to say, well known to those in the finance and economics industry as well.
Paul Bloxham's speech included a comprehensive analysis of the current economic landscape, following the recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which has resulted in market volatility following US and Israeli military action against Iran. As expected, markets responded swiftly, with equities selling off, bond yields rising and investors rotating toward traditional safe havens. Energy markets returned to centre stage, particularly given the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, which sees the facilitation of around 20 per cent of global oil supply. Oil prices moved higher on supply‑disruption concerns, the US dollar strengthened, gold prices dropped, and the Australian dollar weakened. While periods like this can feel unsettling, history shows markets have worked through geopolitical shocks before, or at least one hopes that is the case once more.
Closer to home, one of the strongest messages from Paul’s keynote speech was that Australia’s challenge isn’t a lack of demand—it’s a lack of supply. Productivity has stalled, effectively lowering the economy’s “speed limit” and making it harder to grow sustainably without sparking inflation. With unemployment still on the low end, the economy is running close to full capacity. That’s why interest rates have been rising—not because things are overheating, but because constraints around housing, energy, skills and capacity are limiting sustainable growth. Public spending has added to demand in this tight environment, increasingly squeezing out private sector activity. Structural reform remains critical, but for business leaders the most immediate opportunity is internal: lifting productivity through better execution, smarter investment and sharper focus on how work gets done.
Following the keynote presentation, attendees of the WAGBA-HSBC event had the chance to deep dive in an engaging Q & A session, with discussions surrounding potential economic constraints and effects while graduating to more sustainable forms of energy production, and the effect of AI, mis- and disinformation on geopolitics.
WAGBA would like to extend its gratitude to HSBC once again for supporting such an insightful event, and to Paul Bloxham for his highly informative keynote presentation. Thank you to all attending WAGBA members, business representatives and guests for their contributions. We look forward to the next upcoming event with HSBC!
Biography of Paul Bloxham:
Paul Bloxham, Chief economist Australia & New Zealand at HSBC was ranked by The Australian Financial Review as the most accurate forecaster of 2024, based on his predictions for the cash rate, unemployment, and inflation last year.
Paul’s primary focus is on forecasts and trends for the Australian and NZ economies and their interaction with global financial markets and international economies.
Prior to joining HSBC in 2010, Paul Bloxham spent 12 years as an economist within the Reserve Bank of Australia's Economic Analysis Department where he headed up the overseas economies and financial conditions sections, as well as working on domestic forecasting and prices. As a regular commentator on local and international business television and a frequent contributor of opinion editorials to the Australian newspapers, Paul is also an Adjunct Professor at Curtin University, and holds a Master's degree in Public Financial Policy from the London School of Economics.
